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Mounting apprehensions exist about the potential of armed conflict between Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has intensified in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in the previous year that his nation's maritime access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Ties between the two countries have regularly been difficult. After a prolonged fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrea's Response to the Threats

Despite persistent challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to brief comments on X from Information Minister the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for sea access describing it as "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a approach of claiming back lost territory.

The information ministry cautioned on mid-September that efforts to justify "blatant hostility" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Ground

So far, there are no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in the country, state television has displayed graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The head of staff section of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an interview that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Previous Roots of the Conflict

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian rulers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended civil war ensued, finishing with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by the population in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations continued at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The both leaders agreed to a announcement that the conflict was concluded – a move that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

But diplomatic connections have later worsened again.